**Updates will be posted on the first Monday of the month at 9 a.m.**

KEY TAKEAWAYS

    For municipality data, research brief, and technical report, scroll below this box.

    Monday, July 12th: In the last month, new cases and deaths remain low. Every county in New Jersey is in the "yellow" zone indicating slowed spread. However, new case rates are slightly higher at the beginning of July than they were at the beginning of June. The rolling 7-day average the nation is 5.9 per 100K. The average in New Jersey is 3.0 per 100K. The country is now at about 8% of its maximum case rate (as opposed to 6% at the beginning of June), and the state remains at 4% of its maximum rate. Case rates are similarly low across most of the state, ranging from 1.0/100K in Cumberland County to 6.6/100K in Monmouth County.

  1. Now that we are updating monthly, we will compare cases in monthly increments rather than weekly. Cases decreased last month. The total number of new cases in New Jersey between June 13th and July 12th was 6,949, while the total number of cases in the 30 days prior to that was 10,031. This is a 31% decrease. Cases also decreased nationally, from 630,000 last month to 405,000 this month.

  2. In New Jersey, deaths also decreased last month. The total number of new deaths in New Jersey between June 13th and July 12th was 181. The previous month had 442 COVID-19 deaths. Deaths from COVID-19 in the country also decreased, from 15,730 to 7,639. Because the numbers overall are small for deaths in New Jersey, they are particularly susceptible to noise. [Note: on days where a county reported negative new deaths, we excluded that data point from analysis.]

**All data are downloaded from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Github. Data like these are inherently noisy. In the plots, we smooth the data over a 7-day period to help account for the noise. We do not smooth when we report weekly totals. In late June, the state began to include probable deaths as well as confirmed deaths in the numbers reported to the Johns Hopkins database. This caused a large spike in the reported number of new deaths. We included these in the total deaths, but took the spike out of the incremental day analysis to avoid a misleading spike in the graph. Each date's data point includes the average of data seven days prior to that date Please consider these daily plots as a useful rough sketch. State reports and detailed models provide additional information. There are often reports of "negative" deaths and cases, which likely occurs as data are updated. For use in percent changes, we remove "negative values" from the calculations involving increments, but we leave them in the calculations that report cumulative values. For counties with reports of "negative" new cases, we report the data as missing in the heat map.

Contact Sarah Allred at srallred@camden.rutgers.edu



Municipal-level Data


In New Jersey, it has been difficult to obtain official data about the number of positive COVID-19 tests in each municipality. However, many county health departments and other public sources report the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in municipalities each day. On April 22, 2020, WRI began tracking these sources. A research brief describing and analyzing two waves of COVID-19 cases in New Jersey utilizing this data is here. The methods used to collect and analyze the data are described in a technical document here.

This dataset is the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in municipalities throughout New Jersey on April 27, 2020; June 30, 2020; and December 13, 2020.



Regional Definitions (based on disease progression)


  • Northeast: Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Passaic and Union counties (counties with >1000 cases on April 1).
  • Northwest: Hunterdon, Mercer, Morris, Somerset, Sussex and Warren counties.
  • South: Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Salem Counties.

Where we are now: New Cases Each Day Per 100,000 Population

WHAT IT MEANS

  • Recently, cases are decreasing across the state. New Jersey has released guidelines mandating that travelers from certain states quarantine for two weeks when entering New Jersey. The dashed line represents the threshold in cases for a state to be placed on the quarantine list.


Where we are now: New Deaths Each Day Per 100,000 Population

WHAT IT MEANS

  • The plots over time show deaths decreasing. Harvard's Global Health Institute recommends that deaths, as well as cases, be used to determine the severity of the pandemic. The dashed line here represents the level of deaths that is equivalent (in terms of disease spread) to the out-of-state quarantine line in the "cases" plot. Because the numbers overall are small for deaths in New Jersey, they are particularly susceptible to noise.


County-Level Plots: new cases each day per 100,000 population


County-Level Plots: new deaths each day per 100,000 population


Technical Notes:
  1. Data are downloaded from JHU Github approximately 7 a.m. each day. JHU Github sometimes lags New Jersey Department of Health Dashboard.
  2. Day 10 (March 31, 2020) of the JHU Github appeared to contain incorrect data for deaths. We averaged days 9 and 11 to get day 10. Day 31 also contained incorrect data, so we performed a similar averaging procedure. On day 36, Hudson County reported a lower number of total deaths than on day 35. To avoid “negative deaths”, we adjusted the death estimates for the previous days.
  3. Population estimates are from the 2010 Census.

Methods:

The plots here visualize the progress of COVID-19 across three regions in New Jersey. New cases (first figure) and new deaths (second figure) are shown on the y-axis, and time (in days) is shown on the x-axis. To account for population differences between the three regions, we plot the number of new cases (or deaths) per 100,000 population. For example, if the value on the y-axis is 10, that would mean that 10 out of every 100,000 people tested positive for COVID-19 the previous day. The first day on the graph is March 22, 2020.

We plot a rolling 7-day average of the data. This means that each days number is an average of 7 days. We do this because there are variations in the time it takes to report deaths. For example, a health department might be overwhelmed and unable to enter all the deaths on one day, making the numbers look lower than they should.

In addition to plotting data by county, we also average across three regions of the state. The first is northeastern counties. These are counties that had more than 1000 infections each on 4/1/2020, and include Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Passaic and Union counties. The second is northwestern counties. These all had fewer than 1000 infections on 4/1/2020. The third is southern counties, including Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, and Salem counties. These counties had fewer than 250 cases on 4/1/2020.